The Edmonton Oilers inched to the quarter mark of the season with a 5-2 win over the Ottawa Senators that featured many positives.
Their offence got going with five goals, ignited by a new line of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin. The superstars had three points and Podkolzin chipped in with two assists. Evan Bouchard matched Nos. 97 and 29 with three points of his own. Stuart Skinner had one of his best performances of the season and made 27 saves.
The only concern is an injury to Zach Hyman that kept him out for the third period.
It was a much-needed victory, the only win of their three-game road trip, and pushed them to 10 wins over their first 20 games — not exactly impressive but certainly better than the alternative.
The Oilers are 15th in the NHL with a .550 points percentage, a far cry from where they were expected to be by now. To say they’ve underachieved would be an understatement.
How did they get here and what’s next? Let’s examine 20 questions from a topsy-turvy first 20 games.
*Note: These are listed sequentially and not necessarily ranked in terms of importance.
1. Where would they be without Draisaitl and McDavid?
The more things change for the Oilers, the more they stay the same. It’s an age-old problem that has resurfaced again.
Draisaitl has been Edmonton’s best player without question. He has 14 goals, second in the league behind Alex Ovechkin. He carried the Oilers to two wins in three games when McDavid was sidelined.
McDavid hasn’t quite been at his usual level but still has 24 points in 17 games — including 14 points in seven games since returning from the ankle injury. They’ve scored 23 of the 42 goals from Oilers forwards.
2. Can the biggest issue be resolved?
Many facets need to improve but none are as obvious and surprising as the Oilers’ collective inability to put the puck in the net. They’ve scored 55 goals in 20 games even with a five-goal outburst on Tuesday, a 2.75 average that would have been unthinkable coming into the season.
Coach Kris Knoblauch said their offensive production was something he never envisioned would be problematic. It’s time to start identifying some areas that need to be addressed and see if they can be fixed.
3. Will Nugent-Hopkins’ play improve?
There might not be another Oiler who’s struggled more regarding expectations than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Nugent-Hopkins has two goals and nine points in 20 games. He is tied for 12th in team scoring at five-on-five with four points alongside mostly third-liner Adam Henrique and Viktor Arvidsson, who’s missed four games. The players behind them are Corey Perry, Derek Ryan, Drake Caggiula, Noah Philp, Ty Emberson, Travis Dermott, Troy Stecher and Josh Brown.
Rare exceptions aside, he hasn’t seemed to fit anywhere — on McDavid’s wing, centring the second line or a brief cameo in the bottom six.
The offensive woes are one thing, but Nugent-Hopkins’ usually sterling defensive play has been below its standard, too, whether at five-on-five or on the penalty kill. There have been several goals against this season where he’s been out of position.
The Oilers need more from him.
Veteran Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has struggled to meet expectations this season. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)
4. Can Jeff Skinner find a premium role?
Knoblauch mentioned a few times last season that Draisaitl could benefit from more established wingers. Jeff Skinner was one guy brought in to fill that supposed void. Signing him to a one-year, $3 million contract with a no-movement clause simply hasn’t worked out so far.
Skinner has three goals, two of which came in the first five games of the season. He’s clearly found a place in his coach’s doghouse. Before Tuesday, he hadn’t played more than 12:19 in any of the previous five games, and the Oilers used 11 forwards three times in that span. He got to 15:16 in Ottawa partly because of Hyman’s injury.
The fourth line has been Skinner’s most common spot of late due to a lack of pace, physicality and defensive play.
There will need to be a sizable shift in his play and how he’s viewed — and soon — or it’s clear this will be Skinner’s only season in Edmonton.
5. Can Arvidsson get going — and stay healthy?
Arvidsson joined Skinner as a July 1 signee to play on Draisaitl’s wing. He’s done enough to gain more trust from the coaching staff, but that’s what’s arguably made him more of a disappointment.
Arvidsson has five points in 16 games despite getting most of his five-on-five ice time with Draisaitl. Three of those points came in one game, too, when he had a trio of assists against Pittsburgh on Oct. 25.
The 31-year-old winger has had injury issues throughout his career and has been out of the lineup since last Tuesday. The Oilers can’t afford for him to miss much time because they lack suitable replacements within the organization. They can’t afford to have him produce so little, either.
6. When will Hyman start capitalizing on his chances?
Hyman’s 9.14 expected individual goals at all strengths is tops on the Oilers and puts him fourth in the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick. He led the league in that category at 50.44 last season when he netted 54 goals.
But Hyman has only three goals this season. It seems Hyman has two or three excellent opportunities every game but misses the net or is stopped by a goaltender. Logically, his luck will turn eventually when he returns to the lineup. But when?
Hyman said the frustrating part for him is his lack of finishing has cost his team wins. We’ll find out in two weeks if it’s also cost him a spot on Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off after he seemed like a lock a few weeks ago.
7. When will the depth scoring emerge?
Bouchard and Brett Kulak are tied for third and fourth on the Oilers with five and four goals, respectively. That’s expected of Bouchard and a pleasant surprise for Kulak, which is not exactly a good thing.
No forward other than Draisaitl or McDavid has netted more than three goals. Podkolzin still hasn’t scored. The third line has been more noticeable lately with Connor Brown getting two goals in Vancouver on Nov. 9 and Henrique opening the scoring in Toronto last Saturday. Still, those two players, along with winger Mattias Janmark, have combined for only six goals.
It’s tough to win consistently with this type of offensive push.
8. Is it time to switch the power play?
The power play had been so good for the Oilers for so long. They’ve had the most proficient team in the league over the previous six campaigns.
That hasn’t been the case this season. The Oilers have scored nine times with the man advantage and never more than once in a game. That 17.3 percent success rate is well below their typical norms. And 52 opportunities in 20 games, a 2.6 average, surely doesn’t help. Still, the feeling around the team is its ineffectiveness has lost them games.
The coaching staff has already toyed with personnel changes. Perry was tasked with taking Hyman’s spot in the third period in Ottawa, but that was out of necessity. It might be time to put one or two of those changes into practice by choice. Up front, putting Skinner in for Nugent-Hopkins could spark inspiration. Taking Bouchard off the power play might be the wake-up call he needs.
9. What should we make of Bouchard’s efforts?
Offence breeds confidence for Bouchard, so perhaps Tuesday’s banner night will spark him. He’s scored five times this season — including a beautiful rush goal in Ottawa — but the team’s power-play woes have contributed to his recording just 13 points. That’s a scoring rate below what he’s known for.
Production is one thing, but the defensive side should be more stable.
Bouchard had a terrible turnover that led to the tying goal in the third period in Toronto. He was also partially to blame for the go-ahead goal that night. A week and a half earlier, he was called out by former longtime NHL coach Bruce Boudreau on TSN for two lackadaisical plays that led to goals in a loss to Vegas.
Bouchard will always be known more for his offence than his defence. He’s elite at the former. But he’s made tremendous strides in the latter department in recent years even if he’s still prone to lapses. He’s got to cut down the errors he’s made lately, though, because those are more pronounced with the Oilers not scoring enough.
10. Is Knoblauch becoming more forceful?
Knoblauch is among the most measured coaches in the league when speaking to the media. He’ll seldom call out his players and rarely criticize them.
That’s starting to change. Last week, he expressed his frustration with the New York Islanders’ second goal, stating it was “played poorly” by the Oilers. He called a breakaway goal scored by the Nashville Predators late in the third period “unacceptable.”
All this after he benched Draisaitl for a few minutes in the third period during a game last month. It sure seems like he’s starting to flex his muscles a bit more.
11. How should they fix the penalty kill?
The Oilers haven’t been able to lock in their forward pairings. Janmark and Brown and Henrique and Nugent-Hopkins were back together in Montreal after some time apart. With Darnell Nurse out, even the defensive duos were switched. Dermott and call-up Josh Brown got PK time together against the Canadiens.
All this change — not to mention losing four regulars from last season — has affected the short-handed work. The Oilers have killed off 68.6 percent of opponents’ power plays.
The real issue is between the pipes, though.
TSN’s Travis Yost noted the Oilers were the NHL’s best PK in expected goals against per 60 minutes last week but ranked last in actual goals per 60. Per Natural Stat Trick, Stuart Skinner has allowed 3.05 more goals than expected on the PK, whereas Calvin Pickard has surrendered 4.39 more goals than he should have there.
12. How much is goaltending hurting them?
The short answer is a fair bit.
Skinner and Pickard have had a few solid performances between them, but the numbers don’t lie. Skinner has an .881 save percentage and has allowed 6.6 more goals than expected in all situations per Natural Stat Trick. Pickard hasn’t been much better at .893 and 1.26 in the red.
Really, the Oilers are looking for timely saves more than anything else.
13. How do the Oilers stack up defensively?
The inconsistencies in net have made the Oilers seem worse defensively than they really are. Again, the biggest problem is on the penalty kill, but it’s trickled into five-on-five play.
The Oilers have allowed 2.34 goals against per 60 minutes in that situation, good for 14th in the NHL. Not bad but room for improvement. They’re seventh in expected goals against per 60 at 2.3, per Natural Stat Trick. They’re a 55.8 Corsi For Percentage team, second in the league. Their 55.7 high-danger Corsi For Percentage also ranks second.
The organizational viewpoint is that their offence has been more troublesome than their defending.
14. How much longer can Kulak keep this up?
Even disregarding the goal scoring, Kulak’s work on the blue line has been so valuable to the Oilers — especially while he was chipping on his weak side alongside Nurse on the second pair. He’s been tasked with the most responsibility of his career and has performed admirably in the form of a 58 expected goals percentage at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Oilers might need to be cognizant of his workload. Kulak has played more than 20 minutes in 10 of the last 13 games, including a season-high 23:05 on Tuesday. It’s worth noting he was one of the culprits of that “unacceptable” breakaway goal against Nashville last week.
Brett Kulak has been valuable on the Oilers blue line. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)
15. When will management augment the right side on the second pair?
There doesn’t appear to be much rush based on the way things are going.
The Oilers might not have a name-brand blue line behind Bouchard, Nurse and Mattias Ekholm, but management is comfortable enough with the group’s work at large to patiently stay the course.
Don’t mistake that for indifference or contentment. It’s all but a certainty the Oilers will acquire at least one defenceman by the trade deadline. Though a righty blueliner is preferred, handedness is not expected to be a hangup for improving the group.
But finding the right player is paramount, rather than being too proactive.
16. Can Josh Brown make an impression?
Waived and demoted at the end of the preseason after signing a three-year contract on July 1, Brown has been doing his best to get back in the organization’s good graces.
He was part of an effective penalty kill with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors and showed off his toughness by getting into four fights. Recalled Sunday after Nurse’s injury, Brown has done much of the same with the Oilers — including getting into a scrap on Tuesday.
The understanding here is he’ll have to make an even greater impact to remain on the roster after Nurse is ready to return.
17. How will the defence get sorted out?
Until a trade is made, the Oilers will likely stick with the same defence deployment once Nurse returns.
The Ekholm-Bouchard tandem should remain intact. Nurse and Kulak will get time together and work with other partners: Emberson for Kulak and a combination of Stecher and Dermott for Nurse, depending on which player is in the lineup.
It’s clear the coaches feel they need to shelter the two players slotted on the right side behind Bouchard.
18. What’s next for Emberson?
Emberson’s raw numbers aren’t pretty. He has just one assist in 18 games. The Oilers have been outscored 13-6 in his 231 minutes at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.
But there are signs Emberson — 24 years old with just 48 NHL games on his resume — is coming around, especially in a suitable environment. According to Puck IQ, Emberson has a 59.6 Corsi For Percentage against middle-type competition and a 52.30 CF% against lower-end opponents.
The Oilers could have a worthwhile contributor if Emberson grows into his depth role and keeps working at penalty killing, something he’s getting more minutes in of late.
19. Is Ryan’s job in jeopardy?
It’s unlikely in the near term because of the injury situation and because he plays centre, but this is something to monitor. Why? Ryan had been a fixture on the penalty kill since joining the team in the 2021 offseason, but his role there has decreased over the last few weeks.
Ryan is now seventh among Oilers forwards in short-handed ice time this season. He’s behind Arvidsson, who’s played two fewer games. Simply put, Ryan’s value to the organization diminishes if he’s not a regular and effective penalty killer.
20. How does Kapanen change the mix?
It remains to be seen if Kasperi Kapanen — claimed off waivers Tuesday — is the right fit, but the Oilers had to shake things up a bit. They couldn’t continue to have 11 healthy forwards (before Hyman’s injury) at their disposal. They needed an infusion of speed after the departures of Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway and Warren Foegele in the summer.
Kapanen will likely get some middle-six looks once he’s acclimated with the Oilers. It’ll be up to him where he goes from there. Something is bound to give once Nurse, Arvidsson and Hyman get healthy. The Oilers are now carrying 23 players on the active roster. General manager Stan Bowman has kept things lean, with 21 players whenever possible. A defenceman is almost certainly going down to Bakersfield — likely Josh Brown — but will a forward be headed there, too?
(Top photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
