Winnipeg Jets depth chart: Analyzing the team's strengths and weaknesses

On paper, the Winnipeg Jets are a probable playoff team without an inside track to Stanley Cup contention.

Could we be underestimating them again?

Now that the Jets are inches away from naming their final roster, it’s time to zoom into Winnipeg’s depth chart, starting with our projected opening-night lineup.

You’ve seen this before. This roster is almost identical to what we’ve been projecting throughout training camp.

The only adjustments are for injury, with Haydn Fleury and Dylan Coghlan winning jobs in lieu of Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley. Neither David Gustafsson nor Jaret Anderson-Dolan are expected to miss time but each is banged up; we’ve thus projected a 23-player roster with 14 forwards, seven defencemen and two goaltenders — at least to start — instead of the 22-player roster Scott Arniel told us he’d hoped to land on when camp began.

Rosters are due on Monday. It’s possible Arniel surprises by keeping Elias Salomonsson over Coghlan or one of Brad Lambert or Nikita Chibrikov over Anderson-Dolan. That’s not the call we’re making here, as we move into position by position analysis of this year’s Jets.

Centre

Winnipeg’s centres have diverse strengths and weaknesses and likely rank mid-pack in terms of the NHL at large.

Mark Scheifele is many things. A big, powerful protector of the puck. A strong shooter. A smart, consistent playmaker. He has body positioning tricks designed to earn him an extra inch in the offensive zone, opening up passing seams that he exploits. Scheifele scored at a point-per-game rate like clockwork through the heart of his 20s and is a threat to do it again this season — particularly given his role on the Jets’ suddenly potent-looking power play.

He’s not among the best in the world at his No. 1 position. If the NHL started from scratch today, with GMs on all 32 teams given the option to draft teams from scratch, Scheifele would not be one of the top 10 centres drafted.

This isn’t a slight — it’s just that, in a league with Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Jack Eichel, Sebastian Aho and Brayden Point in it, Scheifele is a solid first-line centre without being a spectacular one. Judging Winnipeg by its top centre and its top centre alone, then, would make the Jets an average club — not a Cup contender, not a lottery team.

I’m not as down on Scheifele’s defence as Dom, Shayna and Sean were in the analytics-heavy Jets season preview. I think his commitment to the Jets’ improved team defence over the past few seasons has been solid, although failed zone exits — particularly when he, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi play together — hurt his defensive numbers. I think the Jets could maximize Scheifele’s (and Connor’s) offence if they could find a way to make sure that duo gets the puck out of their own zone with possession more often than it does. I don’t know if that means a split, or playing Josh Morrissey behind them at all times, or adding Nikolaj Ehlers to their right wing. Still, I think of Scheifele as a great point producer whose defence is fine — and if I wanted him to displace one of the top-10 centres from the list above, I’d need him to score even more (which seems like a tough ask) or to spend less time in his zone (which seems to be about zone exits).

Adam Lowry gives the Jets’ shutdown line a lynchpin further down the lineup. Lowry is a two-way force with just enough offence to justify heavy usage, earning a seventh-place finish in Selke Trophy voting last season. If the Jets had two centres of Scheifele’s calibre — as many Cup contenders do — Scheifele “B” would take up the slack and Lowry would be one of the best third-line centres in the world.

Of course, that’s not how Rick Bowness’ Jets ran their lines. Lowry was Winnipeg’s second-line centre under Bowness — not its third — and there’s no guarantee Arniel diverts from last year’s deployment. Whereas Lowry tends to drive play and goals well enough to be an elite third-line centre, his results are below average for a second-line centre on a Cup contender. That gap is primarily about offence; he’s more than effective enough in his own zone but scored 36 and 35 points in two seasons as Winnipeg’s de facto 2C.

Among Jets centres, Vladislav Namestnikov is the big question mark. He’s tenacious, pesky and positionally sound. He reads off linemates Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers well enough to produce some offence — and that line outscored its opponents 11-6 last season to prove it. Namestnikov would not grade out as an above average second-line centre throughout the league but the Jets’ deployment, leaning heavily on Scheifele and Lowry as they did, opened up opportunity for him to be effective — particularly when he played with high-end wingers.

Meanwhile, Rasmus Kupari’s right-handedness appears to give him the edge over Gustafsson for the fourth-line job. I expect both to play, with Kupari taking right-side faceoffs on the PK and getting a bigger push if his high-speed hustle leads to legitimate production. Gustafsson is the better-rounded of the two, in my opinion, but is not a tremendous threat to generate offence despite a heavy shot. Winnipeg has historically used its fourth line as a secondary shutdown line and, handedness aside, I think Gustafsson is the superior player for that role. Both players are 24; both have (some) room left to develop.

Left wing

Winnipeg is loaded at left wing, although Connor’s particular set of skills creates a sense of all gas, no brakes. The anonymous executives’ criticism of his defence in our season preview was harsh but borne out by years’ worth of defensive results. Connor doesn’t get pucks out, is an inconsistent backchecker, and gives back almost exactly as much offence as he creates. Over the past five years, the Jets have given up five more goals with Connor on the ice than they’ve scored.

That’s a tough outcome, given that Connor can do things with the puck that few players in the NHL can match. He’s the most dangerous finisher on the Jets and has the fast hands and feet to consistently get himself into positions to score. He’s creative, he’s quick, he’s almost always one step ahead of the opposing goaltender and his release tends to fool goalies even when they see the shot coming.

Kyle Connor can do things that your other favourite players can’t.pic.twitter.com/35bTiGflvR

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) September 26, 2024

Connor is a point-per-game player who has scored the eighth most goals in the NHL over the past four seasons and whose defence lets the air out of that offence to the point of being an average first-line player. Sometimes it feels like his critics and his fans only see half of the previous sentence. I’d also point out that mitigating the defensive issues of a player who like Connor does strikes me as a much better problem to have than not having those goals at all.

In a way, that makes Perfetti a nice point of comparison. He has great vision and great hands without the footspeed to get into as many dangerous situations as Connor does. I think this might make Perfetti a bit more dependent on linemates for his offence; he makes passes that lead directly to scoring chances at a high rate but is at the mercy of the quality of finish at the other end of the play. In preseason, we’ve seen Namestnikov get a large volume of chances through his chemistry with Perfetti without scoring at the end.

Nino Niederreiter is a player whose backcheck I don’t question. No Jets forward tracks back to cut off weakside chances at the far post more effectively than Niederreiter does. At his best, Niederreiter bulldogs his way to the front of the net offensively, too, and seems to score close to 20 goals like clockwork as a result. This ability to contribute at both ends of the ice makes Niederreiter a strong candidate to move onto a scoring line if the Jets ever change their approach to deployment. Even if he’s “only” a shutdown forward, his presence helps shift the Jets from average at first- and second-line left wing to above average on the whole. With Morgan Barron a luxury on the fourth line, the Jets have a decided strength at left wing.

Right wing

Winnipeg is similarly well positioned at right wing, albeit with some concerns.

Vilardi is big, he’s strong, he has great vision and he can make small area passes through just about any amount of traffic. His work beside the net on the power play was the difference between an awful unit and a good one last season and it seems reasonable to think this year’s version could lead to a points explosion. Vilardi is a healthy season away from a breakout year of stunning proportions … just like he was one year ago. Arniel will play him with Connor and Scheifele to start the year, looking for improvement in all three zones in what ideally becomes Vilardi’s first full season with Winnipeg.

Ehlers is even faster than Connor if you go by NHL Edge data and uses his speed to get the puck through the neutral zone far more often than not. It helps the Jets play in the offensive zone and leads to elite five-on-five offence, alongside solid defensive numbers even though Ehlers’ in-zone defence is not a strength. There is also a bit of chaos to Ehlers’ game in the offensive zone that can lead to confusion, despite several seasons’ worth of elite point-per-minute rates. Ehlers’ usage has been discussed at length and it continues to be a source of inefficiency. That said, Davis Payne has found a big role for Ehlers on the power play — part of the turnaround on special teams.

Mason Appleton makes defensive plays that Ehlers, Connor and other top wingers don’t make. He eats checks to get pucks out of his own zone and scored a career high 36 points last season. He was also given the fifth-most minutes per game among Jets forwards last season — a testament to Bowness’ faith in Appleton and his linemates. Suboptimal usage aside, Appleton is a quality bottom-six right winger which helps the Jets claim a strength here.

Alex Iafallo rounds out the group. Iafallo has been everything from a solid middle-six contributor to a fourth-line player in recent seasons. Winnipeg probably hoped for more than 27 points from him last season, particularly at a $4 million AAV, but he’s a luxury at 4RW and a decent bet for a bounceback season.

All in all, an average to below average group of centres is supplemented by a large number of quality wingers to make for an above average forward corps. You might like more size or more sandpaper but it’s a capable group with clearly defined roles.

Defence

On paper, this is where the Jets have the most question marks.

Josh Morrissey is an All-Star defenceman who has finished inside the top 10 in Norris Trophy voting for two consecutive seasons. Dylan DeMelo is a strong complement; Morrissey credits DeMelo’s dependable play in part for his own growth. They’re an effective top pair that can be counted on to generate positive goal differential against top competition, even as critics point to a lack of size. They win pucks through speed and smart coverage and then excel at moving those pucks up the ice and onto teammates’ sticks. DeMelo picked up 31 points last season, although that’s thoroughly outshone by Morrissey’s 145 points over his past 159 games. It’s been a particular treat to watch Morrissey develop confidence attacking along the offensive blue line, frequently toe-dragging his forward coverage and then stepping into the spaces left behind.

Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk are the all-Hermantown second pair on whose shoulders Winnipeg’s season might rest. This is going to be Samberg’s first crack at consistent top-four minutes, which I expect to lead to occasional chaos. He’s a quality positional defender. He scans the ice well. He doesn’t get beat back door or lose track of coverage over his shoulder. But Samberg is still working on chaining reads together — ending the other team’s offence, then making his first pass, then joining the play. His breakout passing will get tested under pressure this year but I ultimately expect Samberg to be a quality top-four defenceman in the long run. Pionk’s performance in his second-pair role has varied from excellent to porous; depending on the level Pionk is able to reach in this contract season, he might end up adding to the chaos.

Colin Miller looks like an above average player as the Jets’ third-pairing right-handed defenceman, providing plenty of preseason offence with his shot. He might get some of the “tough guy” duties by default, given Brenden Dillon’s departure and the Jets’ relative lack of size elsewhere on the blue line. He could also see himself become a mentor, whether because Haydn Fleury takes the third-pair left side job and runs with it or one of Heinola or Stanley does the same upon returning to health.

In a perfect world, Winnipeg would find a way to use some of its ample (but injury-impacted) cap space to add a top-four defenceman. We’re going to hear about defence being a five-player job a lot of times. I also think we’re going to see growing pains, whether it’s about losing boxout battles in the slot or about exit passes getting sent back into Winnipeg’s zone.

Goalie

Goalies get paid to play hockey, too, and Winnipeg enters the season with great strength here.

Connor Hellebuyck is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, a four-time finalist and as good bet as any goaltender to be the best in the world at his position this season. His playoff numbers were miserable, though, souring some on a goalie who stole the last playoff series that Winnipeg won.

The Jets do lose ground on their No. 1 position in leaguewide rankings by moving from Laurent Brossoit to Kaapo Kahkonen but there’s no way to call Winnipeg’s goaltending anything but a strength. It could be the best in the league again and is a good bet to be close to the top.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)