With the 2024 NFL Draft headlining the next phase of the offseason, let’s look back at last year’s draft and grade how well each franchise has set itself up for growth — both immediate and long term.
2023 NFL Draft results: Complete list of all 259 picks
Potential franchise-changing hauls
Houston Texans: A
Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, six teams have made two top-five picks in the same draft — and none came out better in the first year than the Texans.
Offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud (No. 2 pick) is arguably a top-12 QB in the league already, having crushed rookie records and leading the Texans to their first playoff appearance in four years. Defensive ROY Will Anderson Jr. (No. 3) was the most effective pass rusher in the class. He’s already a plus run defender and on the precipice of becoming a game wrecker for years on end.
Wide receiver Tank Dell (No. 69) helped this offense stretch the field when he was healthy. He ranked second in expected points added per target and was one of just five rookie receivers to average more than 2 yards per route run.
Sped up the timeline
Green Bay Packers: B-plus
Houston won the 2023 draft for finding its QB of the future, but Green Bay came out best on a pick-to-pick basis. The rookie year of Lukas Van Ness (No. 13) was reminiscent of his Iowa career — a small number of snaps but serious, attention-grabbing production. He was one of two rookies with four-plus sacks on fewer than 200 pass-rush snaps.
The stars of the class, though, were the offensive weapons: tight ends Luke Musgrave (No. 42) and Tucker Kraft (No. 78), and WRs Jayden Reed (No. 50) and Dontayvion Wicks (No. 159). Among all rookies, Reed and Wicks both ranked top 10 in EPA per target (Reed finished first, by a wide margin) and yards per route run. The combination of Musgrave and Kraft as inline TEs/big slots opened up a world of opportunities for Green Bay’s offense, too.
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Los Angeles Rams: B
Puka Nacua’s (No. 177) rookie season has been covered in depth — he produced nearly 1,500 yards receiving on 160 targets. His blocking ability as a big slot also brought new versatility to the Rams’ run game, something that had been sorely missed since the early days of Sean McVay’s tenure. Best of all, Nacua’s emergence gives Los Angeles a smooth succession plan if the wear and tear on Cooper Kupp continues to hurt his production and availability.
Byron Young (No. 77) and Kobie Turner (No. 89) combined for 98 pressures and 17 sacks — an incredible amount of production from rookie defensive linemen. Los Angeles’ highest pick, Steve Avila (No. 36), gave the offense an immediate return as a mauler in the run game and a solid pass protector.
Added firepower/Successfully pivoted a roster
Detroit Lions: B-minus
I qualify as one of the people general manager Brad Holmes called out after the season because I rolled my eyes at the first-round combination of Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12) and Jack Campbell (No. 18). There’s something to be said about creating healthy ecosystems in which rookies can develop, though, and what Detroit had built on offense helped Gibbs deliver 5.2 yards per carry.
Campbell, meanwhile, gave Detroit adequate play for a rookie starter, and slot defender Brian Branch (No. 45) flashed his high football IQ and ball skills throughout the year.
Chicago Bears: B-minus
When a team trades the No. 1 pick, there’s added pressure to find young contributors and justify the decision to hand away control of the draft.
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Darnell Wright (No. 10) quickly became a solid starter at right tackle, and Chicago’s pair of second-round picks returned Gervon Dexter Sr. (No. 53), a solid rotational lineman who can take on a bigger role, and Tyrique Stevenson (No. 56), a starter at corner with a high ceiling. Patching up major holes at those spots helped Chicago balance out its roster and position itself properly for a huge opportunity in the 2024 draft.
Small short-term gains, high long-term potential
Buffalo Bills: C-plus
The gem of Buffalo’s class was offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence (No. 59), a big-time addition to this team’s core. Against base four-man rushes, the Bills offensive line allowed its lowest pressure and sack rates since Josh Allen became a starter — the latter by a significant margin. Buffalo’s increased commitment to the run game also was rewarded with its highest success rate and EPA during Allen’s career and its lowest rate of stuffed runs (zero or negative yardage gained).
It took until the second half of the season for Buffalo to find a role that best suited the skill set of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid (No. 25). Following Gabe Davis’ departure, expect Kincaid’s target share and role in the offense to keep expanding, especially as a big slot.
Seattle Seahawks: C-plus
Devon Witherspoon (No. 5) was a big get for the defense, as he flashed his physicality and versatility from the slot. Offensively, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (No. 20) had a difficult time carving out a role in Seattle’s old offense, but he flashed his ability to work underneath and make difficult catches — and he’s likely to find more opportunities under a new offensive regime. The same should be true for Zach Charbonnet (No. 52), who did a good job keeping Seattle’s offense on schedule as a rotational back.
DEVON WITHERSPOON 97-YARD PICK-6!
📺: #SEAvsNYG on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/UYoERSHHDq— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2023
Arizona Cardinals: C-plus
Paris Johnson Jr. (No. 6) was the big get in Arizona’s 2023 class. He played consistently enough that the franchise feels confident moving him to left tackle. Edge rusher BJ Ojulari (No. 41) is still developing his NFL body, so setting the edge in the run game is tricky, but he provided some flashes as a speed rusher.
The play of Garrett Williams (No. 72) as a slot/safety hybrid allowed Arizona to mix up its coverage looks, and Michael Wilson (No. 94) is a sure-handed outside receiver.
Pittsburgh Steelers: C-plus
The play of Joey Porter Jr. (No. 32) was as advertised — he showed the same physicality that made him a standout prospect. Up front, Keeanu Benton (No. 49) still has a bit to learn about winning with power as a nose tackle, but he flashed when he was freed up to penetrate and run twists. Nick Herbig (No. 132) popped as a speed rusher in Pittsburgh’s rotation, too.
I’ll be interested to see what comes of Darnell Washington’s (No. 93) role. He’s an excellent athlete, but he’s much further along as a blocker than receiver.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: C-plus
Tampa Bay has taken several draft swings at finding front-seven talent, and it looks like the Bucs finally landed a couple of playmakers. Edge rusher YaYa Diaby (No. 82) used his explosiveness and speed to put up 12 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks, and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (No. 19) added 10 TFLs and four sacks. Cody Mauch (No. 48) also looks like a solid starter at guard.
Decent draft (aka “At least we found something”)
Baltimore Ravens: C
First-round WR Zay Flowers (No. 22) was a symbolic pick for the evolution of Baltimore’s offense, and he looks like he’ll be a better option for Lamar Jackson than Marquise Brown was in a similar role. Midround defensive picks Trenton Simpson (No. 86) and Tavius Robinson (No. 124) didn’t have big roles on a veteran-filled defense, but they are raw (and talented) athletes who can take a leap.
Atlanta Falcons: C
Bijan Robinson (No. 8) ran into some significantly loaded boxes in 2023 and struggled to create explosive offense, but he still delivered 4.6 yards per carry — and now has an opportunity to break out in a different scheme. Atlanta’s second-round guard, Matthew Bergeron (No. 38), projects as a decent starter (and, like Robinson, is a better fit in new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s offense).
Zach Harrison (No. 75), Clark Phillips III (No. 113) and DeMarcco Hellams (No. 224) aren’t game-changing talents, but they’ll be nice pieces in their position groups.
This angle of Bijan Robinson’s touchdown is so tough 🔥🔥🔥 (via @AtlantaFalcons) pic.twitter.com/0fJzty6HMr
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) October 9, 2023
Minnesota Vikings: C
Jordan Addison (No. 23) was a scoring machine for Minnesota, posting 10 TDs and more than 900 yards on 108 targets. Undrafted rookie LB Ivan Pace Jr. might not technically count toward the draft grade, but he looks like a steal for this defense. He approached 100 tackles as a rookie.
Added depth/One step in a longer process
Kansas City Chiefs: C-minus
As the season went on, Rashee Rice’s (No. 55) splash plays kept increasing, and he finished with more than 900 yards receiving (and led all rookie receivers in yards after catch). Kansas City is still looking to retool its supporting cast of playmakers around Patrick Mahomes, and Rice checks the box of someone who can create with the ball in his hands.
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Tennessee Titans: C-minus
Peter Skoronski (No. 11) was the first step toward rebuilding Tennessee’s offensive line, and he looks like he will be one of the top young guards in the NFL. RB Tyjae Spears (No. 81) still has to prove himself durable enough for an increased workload, but he averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie, and 70 percent of his yardage came after contact.
The big question here is quarterback Will Levis (No. 33), whom the Titans will be evaluating closely in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers: C-minus
Quentin Johnston (No. 21) had a disappointing rookie campaign, averaging fewer yards per route run than teammate Derius Davis (No. 125) — who was drafted as a special teams player. DE Tuli Tuipulotu (No. 54) was a big-time find for the Chargers and their struggling defense, though, as he produced eight TFLs and 4.5 sacks.
Philadelphia Eagles: C-minus
There was a lot of hype around Philadelphia’s first-round selections, former Georgia teammates Jalen Carter (No. 9) and Nolan Smith (No. 30). Last season’s defensive meltdown does not fall on the shoulders of the rookie class, but Carter’s production didn’t paper over an aging roster around him, and Smith didn’t show enough in limited action to keep the Eagles from acquiring Bryce Huff this offseason.
Tyler Steen (No. 65) and Sydney Brown (No. 66) will be nice to have, but the franchise needs more young difference makers.
New York Giants: C-minus
Deonte Banks (No. 24) was a fun watch coming out of college and as a rookie showed the speed, physicality and competitive edge that made him a late riser in the draft process. Jalin Hyatt (No. 73) flashed some downfield ball-tracking skills, but he didn’t separate enough last season to be considered a long-term piece of this offense.
Unimpressive and/or re-evaluate in 2024
New Orleans Saints: D-plus
If New Orleans is ever going to break this cycle of kicking its cap-space problems down the road, it has to start nailing its early draft picks again. Bryan Bresee (No. 29) was a good addition as an interior run defender, but we didn’t see much of Isaiah Foskey (No. 40) or RB Kendre Miller (No. 71).
New York Jets: D-plus
Joe Tippmann (No. 43) has earned his spot as a starting interior offensive lineman, which is a big win given the team’s various holes up front. First-round pick Will McDonald IV (No. 15) didn’t see much time in the edge-rushing rotation, but he still delivered a few sacks and TFLs in limited action. Those two were nice additions, but the Jets didn’t get much else out of their rookie class in 2023.
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New England Patriots: D-plus
Christian Gonzalez (No. 17) looked the part of a top-end young CB before his injury, so New England could have come out with a better grade had he stayed healthy.
Keion White (No. 46) is a fine rotational piece, but he didn’t make enough impact plays as a pass rusher for the Patriots to build around him. Marte Mapu (No. 76) spent his rookie year learning the safety position behind Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger, so his opportunities were limited to special teams. The coming season will be critical in evaluating the long-term health of this class.
Jacksonville Jaguars: D-plus
Anton Harrison (No. 27) was an excellent pick — he started all season and looked like a foundational piece in front of QB Trevor Lawrence. The other members of the class saw very little time and had short leashes when they did play. The projections for the group outside of Harrison don’t bode very well, especially for a team with playoff expectations.
San Francisco 49ers: D-plus
Safety Ji’Ayir Brown (No. 87) and kicker Jake Moody (No. 99) made positive impacts on San Francisco’s defense and special teams, but this team is stacked with established veterans — leaving limited opportunities for young talent.
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Las Vegas Raiders: D-plus
Tyree Wilson (No. 7) didn’t generate the kind of consistent pressure you’d want from a top-10 pick, but we may see a more specific role for him on the edge now that Christian Wilkins is in the fold. Michael Mayer (No. 35) put up decent production, and he can fit in Luke Getsy’s offense just as Cole Kmet did. There’s some potential for growth out of Las Vegas’ top-100 picks.
Stalling out
Carolina Panthers: D
Bryce Young (No. 1) looks limited as a pro passer, but his issues were made worse by the lack of a supporting cast. Jonathan Mingo (No. 39) has an impressive catch radius, but he’s unrefined. And without much opportunity in the upcoming draft to right the wrongs of 2023, this class will need to make big strides under the new regime.
The first of many 🥹 pic.twitter.com/GI3IkPL1Js
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) August 26, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals: D
The Bengals took three swings on defense to open the 2023 draft — Myles Murphy (No. 28), DJ Turner II (No. 60) and Jordan Battle (No. 95) — and Turner looks most likely to grow into a full-time starter. Battle struggled to grasp the communication and play-to-play responsibilities of Cincinnati’s defense; Murphy didn’t make much of an impact, even as his participation increased.
Cleveland Browns: D
Cleveland has been working with a draft capital deficit in the wake of the Deshaun Watson trade, and this grade reflects that. Keep in mind that not seeing much of Cedric Tillman (No. 74) — or any of Siaki Ika (No. 98) — makes it difficult to feel optimistic.
Dallas Cowboys: D
Mazi Smith (No. 26), Luke Schoonmaker (No. 58), DeMarvion Overshown (No. 90) and Deuce Vaughn (No. 212) were the biggest names in Dallas’ 2023 class — and we didn’t see much production. With big contract extensions looming for Dallas’ key players, those four need a major surge during the 2024 season.
Denver Broncos: D
Third-round pick Drew Sanders (No. 67) will be moving to edge rusher, so there’s some hope that Denver still can get the most out of him. Riley Moss (No. 83) and JL Skinner (No. 183) will have opportunities to compete for playing time in 2024, too, as Denver moves on from some of its veteran defenders. Still, those players didn’t produce in 2023, so any expectations are pure projection.
A step backward/Incomplete
Miami Dolphins: D-minus
The team lost its first-round pick in 2023, and it didn’t get any year-one rookie production aside from RB De’Von Achane (No. 84). Like Dallas, Miami has some big-money deals on the horizon — and the franchise already has suffered from poor drafts in recent years. CB Cam Smith (No. 51) needs to see the field and be a major contributor in 2024.
Washington Commanders: D-minus
Emmanuel Forbes (No. 16) had some rough moments, to the point that he was benched during the 2023 season. Safety Quan Martin (No. 47) played in the slot by necessity as a rookie, but it’s not clear if that’s the best spot for him in Dan Quinn’s defense. After trading away two starting edge rushers last year, this team cannot afford to have its early picks sitting on the bench.
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Indianapolis Colts: Incomplete
I know what I think QB Anthony Richardson (No. 4) can be, but we need a full season to see if the production matches the potential. The other rookies in the Colts’ class delivered inconsistent (or worse) early returns — but it’s unfair to judge this group without its biggest data point.
(Top photos of Devon Witherspoon, C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua: Steph Chambers, Ryan Kang and Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)