Last week, I released my first 2025 NHL Draft ranking. This week, I released a new 2024 NHL Draft ranking.
With the CHL playoffs and the NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament both about to get started — and U18 Worlds, the Frozen Four and the Memorial Cup soon after — it felt like as good a time as any for a mailbag.
You submitted a couple hundred questions. Today, I’ve answered 13 of them in depth, ranging from a combined 2023 and 2024 draft ranking to the NHL readiness of this year’s top prospects, Tij Iginla’s game relative to Jarome’s, the D in this year’s draft and a theoretical question of scouting.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it here, I’ll circle back and answer the rest of the submissions in the coming days.
If this draft class and last year’s draft were combined, how would you see the top 10 turning out? — Robert B.
Where would your top four prospects of Macklin Celebrini, Artyom Levshunov, Ivan Demidov and Cole Eiserman (as well as Anton Silayev out of interest) have ranked/been selected if they were in the 2023 draft class? — Michael M.
Slotting only using where I was at on the 2023 kids pre-draft, and not what’s happened since, the combined ranking of the top prospects from each would probably look something like this:
- Connor Bedard (’23)
- Macklin Celebrini (’24)
- Matvei Michkov (’23)
- Adam Fantilli (’23)
- Leo Carlsson (’23)
- Will Smith (’23)
- Artyom Levshunov (’24)
- Ivan Demidov (’24)
- Cole Eiserman (’24)
- Zayne Parekh (’24)
- Sam Dickinson (’24)
- Zeev Buium (’24)
- Anton Silayev (’24)
- Zach Benson (’23)
- Gabe Perreault (’23)
- Berkly Catton (’24)
- Konsta Helenius (’24)
- Cayden Lindstrom (’24)
There are a couple of takeaways here. First, though 2024 outnumbers 2023 in players by 11 to seven, the top of the 2023 class does make up five of the top six. I think that speaks to the high-end quality of last year’s draft and also the depth of quality in this one. When you slot it like this, it actually leaves me maybe a little higher on 2024 than I realized. Second, there has been some debate about Celebrini versus Fantilli/Carlsson and I definitely lean Celebrini at this stage (certainly over where I was at on Carlsson).
Note: I’d probably have Ryan Leonard at the back of this list today, but was a little lower on him at the draft (he ranked No. 11 on my 2023 board when the Caps took him No. 8).
Where would last year’s top D (Dmitri Simashev, David Reinbacher, Axel Sandin Pellikka, Tom Willander, Mikhail Gulyayev) rank among this year’s top D? — David U.
How would the top defensive prospects in this year’s draft rank against the top defensive prospects from the past several drafts? — Steve S.
If you were looking closely at the above list, you probably picked up on the answer to the first question there, which is to say that I’m higher on every one of the top-five D in 2024 than I was on all of the top-five D in last year’s draft. Now, it is worth noting that the next two D in a combined ranking of the two drafts would have been 2023’s David Reinbacher and Axel Sandin Pellikka before getting to the next 2024 D in Carter Yakemchuk.
If you include 2022, things get interesting because I had Simon Nemec at No. 2 on my board and David Jiricek at No. 6, with Denton Mateychuk and Kevin Korchinski soon after. Nemec and Jiricek would both rank in that group with Levshunov, Parekh, Dickinson, Buium and Silayev, with the former at the front of it somewhere and the latter at the back of it somewhere.
Tij Iginla, the son of former NHLer Jarome Iginla, is eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft. (Dale Preston / Getty Images)
Could Tij Iginla work his way into the top 10 of the draft? — Michael P.
How does Tij compare to Jarome both stylistically and ceiling-wise? Are fans off base seeing a high-scoring power winger when looking at him? — Jeff Y.
There are scouts (a minority, but some) who think Iginla belongs in the edges of the top-10 conversation. I obviously view him more as at the front of that very next tier in the 12-16 range.
There are potentially three things left for him (the WHL playoffs, U18 Worlds and the combine) to make an impression and push into the back of that next tier for a team (all it takes is one). If the Rockets lose in the first round of the WHL playoffs, he’ll surely play for Canada. If they win, his availability will likely depend on how long their second-round series goes. I think there are good odds the fifth-seeded Rockets beat the fourth-seeded Wild in the first round. They’d then be underdogs in a second-round series, though. The first round will end no later than April 10. U18 Worlds start on April 25. Canada does occasionally leave a spot or two open, though (they waited for Riley Heidt last year, for example), and Iginla would fit the bill. I could see him really impressing in that setting, too. I would expect him to perform well at the combine as well. He was injured during the CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game testing, and only completed the chin-ups, which he did the most of.
As for the Tij and Jarome comparisons, though there are some similarities they’re more different than they are alike. They shoot the puck very similarly. I’ve actually talked to Tij about my observations of that. Tij has a very traditional snapshot that he leans into (a lot like his dad and Joe Sakic had). He doesn’t have the pronounced curl-and-drag release that guys like Bedard and Auston Matthews have patented. So there’s a bit of a throwback quality to him that way, where the puck just pops off of his stick. But while he plays an aggressive, attacking game, he doesn’t play with the power that his dad did. I think people forget how physically imposing Jarome could be. He was a lot to handle physically, would drop the gloves, etc. Tij doesn’t have that same jam. He’s also lighter on his edges/through his skating and takes guys on cuts and angles more than his dad did.
When should we expect the first goalie to be taken? I noticed you don’t have any in your top 64. — Tommy M.
I think that’s one of the questions every scouting department is still trying to work through, because there are usually multiple goalies taken in the second round but there really isn’t one in this group for me. Last year, I liked four goalies in the top-64 range (Trey Augustine, Michael Hrabal, Jacob Fowler and Adam Gajan).
This year, I haven’t seen a goalie of that echelon. There are five goalies in my honorable mentions, which indicates that there are a handful I view as mid-round targets. Four of them are around 6 feet (Ilya Nabokov, Carter George, Ryerson Leenders, and Teodor Munther) and one of them (Nabokov) is a double overager. The other is the towering Marcus Gidlof, a 6-foot-6 goaltender who is still very raw but posted excellent numbers at the J20 level in Sweden this year. Kim Saarinen, who is NHL Central Scouting’s top-ranked European goaltender, has some believers as a second- or third-round target as well. It is a bit of a down year for goalies, though.
You’ll probably see one or two go in the second. I think I’m partial to Carter George, but I probably wouldn’t take him in the second round.
Which players in this draft stand out for their compete level? — Josh H.
The two that immediately come to mind are actually the two Norwegians, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Stian Solberg. They really battle. Brandsegg-Nygard’s got an engine and Solberg’s just a thorny pain.
Some other competitive kids from my top 64 off the top of my head (no particular order): Cole Beaudoin, Charlie Elick, Liam Greentree, Tanner Howe, Cayden Lindstrom, Carter Yakemchuk, Yegor Surin.
Of the top prospects in the 2024 draft, who is most likely to be in the NHL next season? — Matt C.
With Celebrini not turning 18 until June, what do you think are the chances that he stays in college for another year? With his brother also at BU, and best friend Cole Eiserman coming next season, I wonder if he has thought about sticking around. — Ryan P.
How far do you believe guys like Konsta Helenius, Cayden Lindstrom and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard are from being full-time NHLers? — Joao Pedro C.
How many of this year’s draft eligibles figure to be plug-and-play or NHL-ready within a year? — Bob M.
The answer to whether Celebrini could play in the NHL next season is an easy one: Yes. There’s nothing in his profile that should hold him back, even as a young 18-year-old who would have to play center. I think he could be a good middle-six center tomorrow and would be one of the Calder front-runners.
I wouldn’t say that an immediate jump to the top is a sure bet. Talk began to circulate around him going back to Sweden at the world juniors. It’s my understanding that Hockey Canada has its fingers crossed that he may play for them in Ottawa at next year’s tournament. There are some around college hockey who believe he’s going to come back. As you alluded to, playing with Eiserman doesn’t hurt. It’s also my understanding that he won’t make his decision until after he talks with the team that drafts him about it, though. And there are some who believe he’d be foolish to go back to college for the money (now and into the future) that he’d be giving up.
As for the NHL readiness of the others? I think Dickinson is really close for an 18-year-old defenseman, but we rarely see them step right into the NHL and a leading role with Team Canada at the world juniors is more likely. Levshunov is physically there already (though I think a return to MSU to grow up a little off the ice could be important for him). Lindstrom has many of the tools he needs and I could see him getting a taste out of camp with the team that drafts him, but is ultimately a better bet to return to the WHL and play for Canada at the world juniors (especially after the injury in the second half this season because it’ll be important that he plays games and continues to develop). Helenius and Brandsegg-Nygard have pro quality and in the latter two’s cases experience, though both are expected to go back to Finland and Sweden. I could see Liam Greentree and Carter Yakemchuk being close after one more year in junior, especially if they can improve their skating. So we’ll be seeing some from this age group in the NHL soon, even if it’s not next year.
When you project a prospect’s growth, what are the traits you see as more “developable” versus the traits that you expect to stay stagnant when that prospect becomes a full-fledged NHLer? Does it depend on the player? Is there disagreement amongst scouts/GMs as to what traits have the potential for growth? — Jamie R.
I always like to finish the mailbag with a more theoretical question and this was a good one.
Certainly the answer to this depends on the player, and genetics. Skating and shooting are the ones that players spend the most time on, and the ones where there are the most people in the sport working to help players build them. With the right coaching (not just on the ice with some of the very, very good skating and shooting coaches that are out there but also off of it through work that can be done in the gym to build power and acceleration through the feet and hips/shoulders/hands), you can improve both. Not everybody can get to where Bedard or Alex Ovechkin or Matthews got to, but I could list a litany of players who’ve markedly improved their skating and shooting post-draft through work in the gym (which also often includes nutrition, rehab, etc.) and on the ice.
I do think skating is harder to fix and improve than most people realize, though, which is where the last part of that question re: whether there’s disagreement about which traits can be worked on comes in. There’s a reason that some players just stay slow. I know John Tavares and Ryan O’Reilly, as just two examples, have worked on their feet for years. They’re both great athletes, too. They’re still lower-end skaters relative to the levels they’re at as players. In their cases, it’s not about muscle mass or power through the legs, either. It’s about the quick twitch piece. Then there are others who just struggle to get stronger in the legs (and body, really) and never develop the power through their stride as a result. Some guys are just lean, with a metabolism that works harder, and it’s harder for them to add the muscle mass they need.
I do think that the decision-making piece of the puzzle for both forwards and D can be taught/learned with game reps, good coaching and natural maturity. Some scouts think the between-the-ears part of the game can never be learned and that the play just moves too fast for many. And while I think that’s true for some and some never figure it out, I think there are many who are poorly coached and never properly learn risk management because their coaches believe that managing risk is playing with none and it’s beat out of them. Thomas Harley is having a breakout season this year and he’s a great example of that. There were some who wrote him off, and coaches along the way who didn’t let him learn the game because they were over-teaching it. In time, though, he has really figured out how to make his game work. Evan Bouchard used to be very lackadaisical and still is to a certain degree but with good coaching has been able to lean into the mental components of the game that he’s good at and manage the rest.
I think the important part, as an evaluator, is to avoid working in black and white. Don’t assume something can be fixed, but also don’t rule a player out on arbitrary grounds. Find the gray area. Talk to their skills coach or skating coach or strength coach, about what can and can’t be fixed, and where the work needs to be done. Talk to the people within your own organization who see things that you as a scout wouldn’t (have your own strength coach watch their stride in isolation, etc.). Learn about their genetics and athletic makeup. Dig in on their willingness to work on their deficiencies.
(Top photo of Macklin Celebrini: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)
